Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Hope v Desperation

Once again, my goal to have a blog that I will update regularly was short lived. Here's another shot...


My husband believes that lottery is for the mathematically challenged (but sometimes he'll still buy them for me because he is a sweetheart :D). I, on the other hand, believe that one is buying a hope. I'm sure everyone has heard the joke by now about a guy asking God why can't he win the lottery and God said, "you've at least got to BUY the ticket for me to help you." Well... you get the idea.

So where does the desperation part comes in? Desperation is when you looked up the odds of 1/4,500,000 (yes, that's one if 4.5 million) to win the California lottery. Desperation is to calculate out that at the rate of 2 tickets per drawing, it is going to take one 400 years to buy 4,500,000 lottery tickets. Desperation is to calculate out that to buy 4,500,000 tickets within 10 years one will have to buy about 40,000 tickets each drawing... And for those of you who understands the basic concept of statistics -- just because the odds is 1/4,500,000 does NOT mean that buying 4,500,000 tickets will ensure 1 win. Just look at the number of kids a couple that wanted a kid of a specific gender need to have before they have the child of the "right" gender.

(A highschool friend of mine has 6 sisters before her parents finally have the son. The odds of having 7 girls in a row is 1/128 or 0.0078125...)


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